Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Betting On Boxing

by Michael Nelson

Thinking about laying down some cash on the Berto vs Collazo fight? Here are some things to consider before you put your money on the line...

Andre Berto Vs. Luis Collazo (January 17)

Betting Line: Andre Berto: -525 Luis Collazo: +400
My adjusted line: Andre Berto -210 Luis Collazo +165

Luis Collazo is by far Andre Berto's biggest test in his professional career. We haven't seen Andre in with a solid southpaw opponent before, and you should expect the quick-handed, fairly durable, experienced Collazo to give Berto fits. The lopsided line is almost certainly due to Shane Mosley's surprisingly easy victory over Luis two years ago. But given how little Collazo threw his straight left during the second half of that bout, I suspect his claim of an injured hand suffered in the early going was an honest excuse. Collazo has the skillset to touch Berto's face up, and in all likelihood, that's exactly what he'll do.

The main advantage that Andre Berto has is that his most glaring weakness is something that Collazo may not have the ability to test: his chin. Collazo has shown flashes of power in the past - like when he had Ricky Hatton skating around the ring - but he has never been considered a legitimate KO threat. He probably has the ability to stun or hurt Berto; whether or not he can finish him is another story. Moreover, Collazo's penchant for taking rounds off will mean easy points bagged for Berto, who throws the more emphatic, showier punches that'll catch the attention of the judges.

I favor Berto to win a close decision. As a betting man, however, that's not where my money would go, as I can easily envision Luis winning despite the odds suggesting he doesn't have much of a chance.

Recommendation: Throw some change on Luis Collazo, but don't bet the farmhouse. The odds will tighten up as the fight nears so put in early.


Andy said...

I'm surprised Collazo's such a big dog and agree it's likely got a lot to do with the Mosley fight. He might not be good enough to beat Berto, but he's better than that line.

Lee Payton said...

Styles make fights, and while I think one can rely on Berto being the more energetic of the two, I'm not sure he will be very comfortable against a southpaw who knows what he is doing. That alone makes it worth putting something down on the veteran from NY, even if you think Berto should win.