Pavlik and Cotto Score Knockouts

by Lee Payton

While I'm not sure it was worth the price of the Pay-Per-View, at least now we know that Kelly Pavlik and Miguel Cotto are OK. It's a good thing too, because not only are they young and exciting, but they also attract large, passionate audiences whenever they fight. In short, we need them.

So while the guys across from them never really had a chance at winning, they did let us know that two of the sport's best are just fine.

The Middleweight Champion pounded his Mexican challenger, Marco Antonio Rubio, into verbal submission, after the conclusion of the 9th round. Really, one of corner men should have known it was time to pull the plug. I'm not sure if everyone caught it, but there was a last second whack to the body that went a long way in convincing Rubio to remain seated.

Pavlik wasn't especially accurate with his power on this night, but some of that was because his opponent was restricted to moving and covering up most of the fight. From the beginning, he showed little interest in taking a chance, as respect for the champ's power held his hands back throughout the contest.

The home crowd was treated to a handful of shocking blows during his usual steady work. They can now exhale. Kelly is still himself.

Is that enough to beat the other top middleweights in the world? I'll try to be quick.

I am not a fan of Arthur Abraham, but in my opinion, he`s terrible for Pavlik. The athletic edge is huge, and Pavlik is not exactly trustworthy on defense. I just don't think he can handle faster fighters. That's what it comes down to. Abraham would beat him, and probably by knockout.

Felix Sturm might be able to beat him in Germany. That`s actually a close fight. Not pretty, or action-packed, but competitive. Probably something I could go without seeing.

I've thought Paul Williams could beat Pavlik for a pretty long time now and nothing has changed. I think he is the quicker, tougher, better fighter. Of course, some will question how one could so boldly pick a guy who is mostly unproven at 160, against the division's number 1 fighter. Call it a hunch.

The other main event...

Photo © Marty Rosengarten / Ringsidephotos.com

Miguel Cotto picked up a strap he doesn't really need when he knocked out an unfamiliar British fighter named Michael Jennings, in the 5th round. A celebratory crowd filled Madison Square Garden for the return of the popular Puerto Rican warrior, and not one left disappointed or unsure. Their man is alright.

Though I`m sure he's glad it's over, Cotto looked fresh and powerful in slamming his hard left hooks to the body of an over-matched Jennings. He was properly alert without appearing fearful or in doubt of himself. Once it was clear he could do anything he wanted against a fleeing opponent, the finish was near.

He looked fine to me. What's next?

There were rumors that a rematch with Shane Mosley was on the table at one point. I think most fans see that fight as the most significant in the division, at the moment, but I'm not sure that's up next. It was a hard fight to pick in November of 2007, and it's no easier now. If pressed, I'd take Shane by late knockout in a fight he is losing.

Joshua Clottey is a top welterweight with a title, who also happens to be promoted by Bob Arum. He`s acceptable by HBO and doesn't demand a ton of cash for his services. He may have the inside track on an HBO date with Cotto, as things stand. I'll take Miguel by gutty late TKO, on hooks to the liver.

Andre Berto is another fine option for great TV. Cotto is the more professional of the two, but maybe fiery athleticism could mess with that enough to create something memorable. I'd love this fight. You have to go with the more experienced pug in a free-for-all.

The undercard: Local favourite, middleweight John Duddy, outpointed Matt Vanda over 10 rounds to earn a unanimous decision. Atypical of most Duddy fights, it was a rather dull affair, that saw him popping a jab and fighting responsibly. It wasn`t until the 10th round that we saw his head snapping back, the way we`re used to.

I understand the point of the PPV, but this would have been perfect on one of the national networks, or as a special feature on ESPN. It's a shame. A card like this one could have been used to create fans.

- e-mail Lee Payton Read more!

Pavlik/Cotto: Top Rank PPV Predictions

Attemping to get back in the win column, Kelly Pavlik and Miguel Cotto (pictured right) are both returning to action on tonight's Top Rank PPV. Pavlik puts his middleweight crown on the line against veteran Marco Antonio Rubio, while Cotto attempts to get back on track against unheralded Brit, Michael Jennings. Check out what the The Boxing Bulletin writers have to say about how the two main events will play out.

Also be sure to read Jeff Pryor's article from last month, The Audacity of Imperfection, which talks about fighters who lost for the first time in 2008.

I've not seen Jennings, but based on what I've looked up about him, my guess is that he is in for a beating. I have no doubt that he is a brave fighter, so I think he'll make it to the second half, but I'll be surprised if he has the skills to take advantage of whatever doubts may be left in Cotto's mind after being beaten into submission by Margarito. I expect Miguel to box patiently in the early going, and then start pushing forward when he realizes that he is in command. Miguel Cotto stops him in 9 and his fans rejoice. The Pavlik-Rubio fight is much more interesting, but I still feel like the challenger has little to no chance of actually winning. Rubio is an in-fighter who isn't big on defense. I'm not sure he's going to be able to close the distance in order to do his best work. Pavlik could really just stand his ground and 1-2 him to death, but he may be tempted to go forward, and that's how things could get tougher than they need to be. Both men prefer to come forward, and when that is the case, the man who backs up usually loses. I think the champion will eventually settle down, and win the fight in a spectacular way. Kelly Pavlik ends matters in 6 rounds. -Lee Payton

I've seen approximately zero footage of Michael Jennings, so I can't say conclusively how well he'll do against Miguel Cotto. Cotto punishes fighters who aren't at the elite level though. Looking at the Brit's record, we see that he 1) probably doesn't have much power, and 2) lost to the only decent boxer he fought. He might be a durable guy, but given Cotto's history and Jennings' record, this has mid-rounds KO written all over it. Kelly Pavlik's coming back down to middleweight, and back to the type of opponent he loves to fight: one that's going to be in front of him. Marco Antonio Rubio is a tough character who shouldn't be taken lightly. Pavlik doesn't take anything lightly, and he's favored in a firefight. Kelly loves knocking opponents out in rounds 6-8 and I see the same thing happening here. -Michael Nelson

I should imagine that if someone named Young Mutley could defeat Michael Jennings then someone named Miguel Cotto shouldn't have much problem doing the same. The real interest here is not whether Cotto wins, but how well he looks doing so. Judging by interviews, Cotto seemed to be still psychologically strong immediately after his defeat to Margarito. Now with the added cloudiness as to whether he was up against a stacked deck that night, I would expect him to have few lingering mental effects. If his body has healed from the beating he took, then Jennings has a very steep hill to climb in trying to beat Cotto. Should the Englishman pull, what would be, a massive upset, it's safe to say that Cotto's career as we know it is over. Bottom line, I would expect Miguel Cotto to win inside the distance, this time on the other end of a severe beating. Having been ringside for Rubio's last performance, his split decision win over Enrigue Ornelas on the undercard of Pavlik-Hopkins, I must say I wasn't terribly impressed. Though I had seen him fight before and been mildly intrigued by his punching power, it would seem that while Rubio is tough and has decent pop, he lacks the polish to truly take advantage of those traits. In his previous losses he has shown he can be outworked over twelve, by a feather fisted volume puncher like Kassim Ouma and knocked out in one round by a decent punching Kofi Jantuah. I would wager that Pavlik hits harder than the latter, and throws as many punches as the former. Not a great combination for Rubio. Like Cotto, the wild card of course comes in the form of Pavlik's psyche. Though he has been loathe to make excuses for his performance against Hopkins this past October, it is clear that Pavlik feels there were extenuating circumstances which led to his downfall. While Hopkins would have been hard to beat with or without the travails of his week leading into that fight, they at least afford him an excuse within his own mind to explain away the performance and allow him to retain some semblance of self esteem. I would expect Pavlik to get back on track in an entertaining bout. Perhaps a comeback not as smooth as Cotto's should be, but a rousing effort that see's the Youngstown native put away a tough and determined Rubio in exciting and explosive fashion. -Jeff Pryor

Cotto should destroy Jennings. My concerns with him were mental and I think this Margarito business will wipe away those issues. Cotto KO3 Rubio is a tougher opponent than people are giving him credit for. I think this has the potential to be a good scrap. Pavlik should be able to outwork him, but I actually think Rubio is a live dog. Kelly by UD. -Mark Lyons

I'm not too excited about the show, as it's hard for me to picture either favourite getting pushed too hard. Just going off how Jennings has done against limited opposition - and that's all I can go off of, since I haven't seen him in action, I can't imagine he's close to the level needed to give Cotto a run for his money. Rubio's tough, but made to order for Pavlik. TKO 6 in an entertaining bout, but one sided bout. - Andrew Fruman

Read more!

Top Rank PPV Preview

by Lee Payton

Photo © Marty Rosengarten / Ringsidephotos.com

These days, it's a big deal when a young fighter loses for the first time. Bob Arum expertly guided the careers of Middleweight Champion, Kelly Pavlik (pictured right), and top welterweight, Miguel Cotto, making them boxing superstars in the process. In 2008, the Hall of Fame promoter miscalculated, and as a result his undefeated stars both have a tick in the loss column.

It happens. Almost all of them lose eventually. The concern among fans is that the two young fighters will be damaged because of the shocking and punishing way they were defeated. Contenders, Marco Antonio Rubio and Michael Jennings, will attempt to exploit any possible weaknesses when they enter the ring as huge underdogs this Saturday night.

What's At Stake

For Pavlik- For only the 2nd time since he won it, his Middleweight Championship will be on the line. Should he lose it to this guy, he might be headed back to knocking guys out on Friday Night Fights. You'd expect a cut in pay would be in order, as well. His status as an elite fighter took a severe hit when Hopkins outclassed him over 12 rounds, but there is enough respect in the boxing world for the ageless great that losing like that can be forgiven. Going down to Rubio would be an entirely different story.

For Cotto- Even now, the Puerto Rican is seen as no worse than the 2nd best 147 lber in the world, and he's still hanging on as a pound-for-pound player. Jennings is totally unknown on this side of the planet, so not only does Cotto have to win, he has to knock him out, to show fans that he is still the cool-headed taker of livers they love. A loss would be so devastating, it's hard to imagine.

The Styles

Pavlik will do what he always does. He'll come forward behind a long jab, looking to unleash his explosive right hand. Rubio has a limited outside game, but he's a sturdy worker on the inside who brings some of his own power. It's up to him to get close, in order to make the most of his advantages. When both men prefer to go forward, the man who backs up usually loses.

Cotto is a pretty complete fighter. He can pressure guys he doesn't fear, and he can also box when he feels like it. He's very quick and skillful, but he's also murder to the ribcage. I don't see any area where Jennings has the advantage.

What To Expect

I think Pavlik will eventually show Rubio the respect he deserves as a tough hombre. He's used to walking guys down, but in this case the opponent will be right there, ready to go to war. Once he figures out that trying to impose his will is too much work, I see Kelly collecting himself and letting the man come to him. Maybe not having to chase a guy down will open up some of his other skills.

Cotto just has to be himself in there. There is nothing in Jennings' ledger that suggests he is anywhere near this league. I'd say his best chance is to land something big and just hope for the best. With only 16 knockouts in 34 wins, a shocking KO doesn't seem likely. Jennings is in for the type of beating that will leave Cotto fans rejoicing.


Read more!