Timothy Bradley vs Kendall Holt Preview

While much of the talk in the boxing world has focused on the junior welterweight mega-fight between Ricky Hatton and Manny Pacquaio, another big fight in the division is quickly approaching.

Michael Nelson analyzes the "other" upcoming junior-welterweight showdown between belt holders, Timothy Bradley and Kendall Holt.

Photo © Justin McKie

The WBC and WBO light welterweight title unification bout taking place at the Bell Centre in Montreal on April 4th should provide some clarity in a division that is quickly gaining steam.

Several players have emerged since the new year: Juan Urango stamped his foothold with a dominant victory over Herman Ngoudjo in January, Andriy Kotelnik and Marcos Maidana both made statements in their hotly contested bout the following month, and Victor Ortiz announced to the boxing world that he’s for real when he blew out the normally durable Mike Arnaoutis in early March. With former lightweight champion Nate Campbell throwing his hat in the mix, the winner on April 4 will have a full plate in front of them.

Neither man would have it any other way.

It’s evident that 23-0 California native Timothy Bradley set his eyes on ruling the division well before he traveled to Nottingham and snatched the WBC title from Junior Witter last May. An avid student of the game, Bradley said he studied Witter for years knowing that one day he would clash with him.

He passed his exam, snapping more jabs to the pit of the stomach than to the head, setting the heavily favored southpaw up for several overhand rights (pictured below, © Justin McKie), including one that deposited him on the seat of his pants at the end of the 6th round. He’d go on to win a split decision in a fight that most observers saw as wider than the judges scored it.

Four months later, he fought Edner Cherry on what was supposed to be the undercard of a match between Nate Campbell and Joan Guzman. After the main event was scrapped at the last minute due to Guzman’s struggles to make weight, the card became a showcase for Bradley, who easily outboxed Cherry en route to a lopsided decision.

The 8th round was especially instructive for future Bradley opponents; after Edner’s trainer Pete Fernandez cursed him out in the corner, Cherry came out recklessly aggressive and ran into a right hand that put him on the canvas, deterring any thoughts of a late round rally. Bradley is not a fighter you can make too many mistakes with.

But ask Ricardo Torres and he’ll tell you the same about the man Bradley’s about to face.

The former WBO titlist figured he had Kendall Holt finished in the first round of their rematch last June. He dropped Holt twice within the opening 30 seconds of the bout. Becoming a bit too overzealous, he ran into the top of Holt’s head as he rushed in to finish his stunned opponent and staggered backwards. With more power than his 25-2 with 13 KOs record would indicate, Holt took advantage by landing a right hand that rendered Torres completely unconscious, sitting awkwardly, half-Indian style against the ropes. It was one of the most devastating knockouts in years, but the head butt preceding it created a demand for a third fight.

The first bout between the two adversaries ended in controversy as well. Going into the 11th round, Holt was well on his way towards winning a comfortable decision in front of a hostile crowd in Barranquilla, Columbia, knocking Torres down in the 6th with a right hand. After referee Genaro Rodriguez ignored what was a clear knock down early in the 11th when another right hand sent Torres chest-first into the middle rope, Holt got caught with a crushing left hook late in the round and went down himself.

Photo © Ray Kasprowicz

Holt got up on shaky legs as the crowd pelted the ring canvas with ice and beer cans. He looked as if he was going to survive the round when Rodriguez suddenly stopped the bout after a few glancing blows from Torres. Furthermore, Holt claimed that someone from the Torres corner grabbed his leg as he attempted to escape Ricardo's onslaught.

The WBO denied the Holt camp's formal request for either a reversal of the decision or an immediate rematch, but kept Holt high in the rankings in order to set up the rematch that happened the following year.

A rubber match was supposed to erase the question marks on who the better man was. It was not to be, as Torres pulled out due to sickness, leaving Demetrius Hopkins to step up in his place a week before the fight. A slightly more aggressive Holt edged out a competitive decision; Hopkins was on the move, too much to land many serious punches, as Holt played the cautious stalker.

Holt will be forced to throw more punches against Timothy Bradley. Bradley’s jab is consistent and varied, pumping it to the head and chest of his opponent, snapping it from a variety of angles. Holt, an accomplished counter puncher, will be looking to time right hands over Bradley’s stick.

Easier said than done. Using constant head movement, Bradley is a difficult man to hit. It makes him slightly more responsible than Holt defensively, as Holt tends to keep his head in one place while he’s rattling off combinations, making the exchanges violent and unpredictable. Bradley almost always ducks and weaves underneath after he delivers his punches.

Nevertheless, while Witter’s speed and power is similar to Holt’s, Bradley has never faced a combination puncher as dangerous as Holt. If he has a mental lapse that allows Holt to land 2 or 3 consecutive blows on his chin, he can be in trouble for the first time in his career. In a recent media conference call, Bradley astutely pointed out that Holt fires off a string of punches whenever he gets cornered or trapped on the ropes. It’s where he’s most dangerous, and Bradley will have to stay low and keep his gloves around his jaw.

Holt, for his part, has a solid jab that he only uses sparingly. Edner Cherry had his best moments against Bradley when he made a concerted effort to jab with him. Holt will have to step out of character and use his stick energetically to give himself the best chance at keeping his shorter opponent at bay.

The stakes are high, so expect high drama out of a highly volatile mesh of styles. When the dust settles, the man with his hand raised will have two belts in a hot division and enough competition around him to make a run towards the top of the pound for pound list in the upcoming years. If Ricky Hatton remains king, there will be a power hungry prince at his doorstep. If Pacquiao knocks Hatton off his throne and steps back up to the welterweight division, Hatton will be compelled to reestablish his reign through a fight with the WBO and WBA unified champ.

The hush of the new era is quickly becoming a roar. The boxing world will be listening on April 4th.

e-mail Michael Nelson
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Unlocking Compubox

Punch stats provided by Compubox have become a staple of many boxing telecasts, but just how useful are these statistics in telling an accurate picture of what's taking place in the ring? Michael Nelson takes a look at the relevance of these oft-quoted numbers.

Shane Mosley smiled and shrugged his shoulders.

He had just thrown seven punches within a second and a half – so quickly that HBO commentator Jim Lampley incorrectly called it a four punch combination. Three of the seven landed. Or was it two? Is it possible none of them landed?

The difficulty in deciphering how accurate the blindingly fast combo was didn’t just lie with the speed it was delivered, but also in the shell-like posture of its target, in this case Ronald “Winky” Wright. Wright was a master at instantly reducing the surface area needed to land a scoring blow into infinitesimal space in between and around his forearms and gloves as soon as his opponent opens up. It’s an ability that has left a long history of foes befuddled and on the losing end of lopsided decisions, including Shane Mosley himself, eight months earlier.

It also leaves questions on how much guesswork goes into recording which blows land and which don’t.

“CompuBox numbers in round one [are] demonstrating exactly what Roy says about the problem of Shane getting to Wright. CompuBox found Wright landing 22 out of 45, and Shane… only 5 out of 59, all body connects – in other words, CompuBox didn’t see Mosley landing a single punch on Wright’s head in the first round,” Jim Lampley said near the beginning of the second round, with a hint of disbelief in his voice.

“I don’t believe that number,” Larry Merchant quickly interjected.

“That’s not true, he did land a few shots to the head, they just weren’t power shots,” Roy Jones agreed.

The CompuBox process of gathering punch statistics is a fairly simple one. Two operators are sitting side-by-side along ringside. Equipped with laptops, one operator carefully monitors the actions of a designated fighter while the other operator does the same with the opponent. They hit one of four keys whenever a punch is attempted by their assigned pugilist: jab connect, jab miss, power punch connect, and power punch miss. As the fight progresses, statistics are compiled for each fighter – how many jabs are thrown, how many are landed, how many power punches are thrown, how many are landed, and the percentages of punches landed out of punches thrown in each category.

photo © Ray Kasprowicz

It should be noted that any non-jab is considered a ‘power punch’, so a power punch isn’t necessarily a powerful blow. A grazing Paulie Malignaggi right hand is counted the same as a staggering Ricky Hatton left hook. In short, the CompuBox system measures the quantity of punches, not the quality of them.

The lead operator, generally the more experienced one, may note pertinent statistics or trends to the televising company’s production truck. The truck feeds the information into the headpiece of the lead commentator, who then relays the stats to the audience viewing the broadcast. The stats are also displayed during and after the fights.

An issue arises when these statistics are used as an authoritative source on what’s happening inside the ring. The operators at ringside pressing laptop keys, albeit trained in their craft, do not have the benefit of replay or slow motion. They’re dealing with live action, prone to compromised angles and perspectives that could prevent them from clearly seeing whether a punch lands or not, in addition to human bias and error.

More importantly, the definition of a landed punch is open to interpretation.

In this instance, Shane Mosley was throwing punches, often in rapid succession difficult for the eye to register, against a man who used his gloves and abnormally large forearms to get a piece of virtually every one of them. Within a matter of a second or two, the operator has to make a judgment call on whether a punch that caught both glove and face, or both elbow and abdomen, is considered a landed punch or a blocked punch.

When monitoring a Winky Wright opponent, a punch tracker is largely working within a gray area. Ten different people tracking landed blows on Wright might get ten different sets of statistics. And while Wright may be the most efficient practitioner of the shell defense, a large percentage of professional fighters use it to protect themselves. Even men whose defense revolves around head movement and distance cover up from time to time.

Still, it’s rare that you hear the type of objections Larry Merchant and Roy Jones threw out on air. Generally, punch stat numbers are used as concrete evidence that a fight is moving in a certain direction. Jim Lampley in particular seems to treat the numbers with special reverence, often using them to support the inclinations of HBO’s unofficial judge Harold Lederman.

The relationship between HBO and CompuBox is a close one. Owner and co-developer of CompuBox, Bob Canobbio, worked as a researcher for an HBO series called Boxing’s Best in the mid-80s. The man he worked under was then producer Ross Greenburg, now president of HBO Sports. After developing the CompuBox system with Logan Hobson, he sold the idea to Greenburg, and HBO started using the system to make their shows more interactive for the viewer. ESPN and other companies joined the fray after 1989.

A notable exception to the business of punch tracking is Showtime. One of the forgotten stories within the ongoing rivalry between HBO and Showtime is how HBO bought an exclusive deal with CompuBox after CompuBox worked a couple of shows with Showtime in the 80s. Since 1985, CompuBox has worked with HBO and only HBO on paid cable.

Ironically, the absence of punch statistics may offer Showtime viewers a clearer, more objective take on what’s transcribing between two combatants inside the squared ring. A reliance on what’s interpreted as a landed punch, along with the musings of an unofficial ringside judge, can easily blur the line between describing the action and dictating a story onto the audience. So when Max Kellerman asks “how can one fighter who’s out landing another fighter in every round seemingly two-to-one be losing a fight?” – in reference to the quantity of Chris John’s punches vs. the quality of Rocky Juarez’ punches in their draw last month – it isn’t difficult to see how faux controversy can be generated amongst boxing fans viewing the fight from their television sets.

That’s not to say CompuBox tracking is without its merits. Extensive video review of a fight can provide more accurate and comprehensive statistics that can be handy in analyzing a fighter’s strengths and weaknesses. An analysis of how active a fighter is, how many jabs, body punches, hooks, etc, are thrown, and how consistent a fighter’s output is throughout a bout can undoubtedly be useful information.

But saturating the television audience with punch statistics tracked live, and treating them as if they’re an infallible representation of events instead of an interpretative portrayal, is abusing the system for the sake of production values. More command should be yielded to the fans, especially ones who don’t know how punches are tabulated by CompuBox, in determining for themselves which blows are landed and which are even worth noting.

While it's easy to measure the quality of play through the use of live statistics in football, basketball, and especially baseball, professional boxing isn't a game. Stripped to its bones, the sweet science is about who is consistently hurting who the most.

That, you can't quantify. In this case, less is more.

e-mail Michael Nelson
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