Impressive Williams Batters Wright

By Lee Payton

Photo © Ray Kasprowicz

Middleweight contender, Paul Williams was too big and too fresh for 37 year old Winky Wright. He dominated a fighter who has made a career of hanging with the very best in the business, living up to his claim as the most dangerous man in boxing.

Wright displayed a champion's heart, but was a step behind all night against his ultra-gifted opponent. As hard as he tried to turn it into his kind of fight, the younger man just wouldn't sit still long enough. The result was the first lopsided loss in an excellent career.

The first round saw the two determined fighters going at it in a struggle for control and the stubbornness of the fighters made for heated action. Williams let loose with over 100 punches, while Wright pressed forward steadily in search of opportunities to counter.

"The Punisher" grabbed rounds 2-5 with superior quickness and output, not worrying about whether his punches landed clean. He just kept throwing leather, with some of it finding it's way around Wright's famous high guard and the rest keeping him busy. Not only was Paul throwing and landing more, but by the 4th, he was also finding openings for his hardest shots.

Wright was able to pick his spots more effectively in the 6th. He smacked right hooks upstairs and down during many sustained toe to toe exchanges. It was probably Winky's best round of the fight, and the last he would win on my card

From there it was "The Paul Williams Show". He showcased all of the elements that make him a complete fighter, not just another tall, ballsy fighter. The man has some slick moves, knowledge of angles, the ability to vary the velocity on his punches, and some snappy combination punching. Pound-for-pound stuff. Wright had never seen anything like it.

Though obviously way down on the cards, the former Jr. Middleweight Champion never folded. In fact, when Williams came out for the 10th round with what he hoped would be a fight-ending assault, Winky just kept his hands up and grinned, as if to say "Who do you think you're in with, son?"

It was an honest effort from a real professional who passed the "fighter to avoid" torch to a worthy successor.

Two judges had it 11-1, while the other scored a shutout for Williams.

So what's next for these two?

Winky was better than many people expected last night, and while I feel he still has something left, it might be best for him to retire. He's been to the top already, and took the hard road to get there, does he really need to get back in line at this stage? Sure, he's still good enough beat some of the other contenders at 160, but how many big money options does he have left?

I guess he could win a couple fights and be back in line for one of the belts. Maybe he should gun for Felix Sturm.

The man loves boxing, so he'll be back. I would expect to see him on ESPN2 later in the year.

As for Williams, the sky's the limit. In the ring, he seems to have it all and now he has the backing of HBO, which will make it a lot harder for the big players at 147-160 to just look the other way. Hopefully they put pressure on Bob Arum to give Paul a shot at his Middleweight Champion, Kelly Pavlik, but don't hold your breath. Bob is a smart guy.

Personally, I think Williams would dominate Pavlik. What edge does the champ have, other than one shot power? He'd be up against a real fighter, and a much better athlete, who is sure to get off first with the most all night long.

Of course there are those who will say "Williams gets hit, and Pavlik is a true middleweight with power"

True. But I think that if Paul had chin issues, they'd have shown up by now. He's taken some very good shots right on the button without blinking in past fights, so I have faith in his ability to take a shot.

Don't forget, Kelly actually has to land his right hand, and he won't have an easy time finding the target against this guy. In my opinion he's not quick or accurate enough to win. If the fight comes off, you can bet Paul will send Top Rank back to the drawing board.

What about Arthur Abraham? I'm not sure this will ever happen, but I'd take Williams here too. The German title holder hasn't shown the fire necessary to be the boss in that fight. He'd be playing defense for 2 minutes and 30 seconds of every round. I suppose there is a small possibility that Art ends it out of nowhere.

Some are beating the drum for Williams to face hard-charging lefty, James Kirkland. While Kirkland would surely make it fun for as long as it lasts, he's too green to deal with the incoming. Williams by KO.

Paul Williams has arrived, and he's willing to fight anyone. The man is a mix of old-school warrior mentality and modern athleticism that is pure hell for anyone from welter to middleweight. I've been a believer for quite awhile now. If you're still not convinced, it's simply a matter of time. He's the goods.

Cris Arreola opened the show by knocking out an old and ill-prepared Jameel McCline. A left uppercut-right hand combo hurt McCline, and a follow-up right sent him to the canvas for the ten count in the 4th round.

Arreola is a fun guy who can make some noise and money in today's heavyweight division, but I'm not sure why anyone should take him seriously as a possible heavyweight champion at this point. He needs to lose some weight and fight a live body.

Larry Merchant was great, as always, but he's never been shy about his quest for another decent American Heavyweight Champion. Remember how in love he was with Michael Grant?

e-mail Lee Payton
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Williams vs Wright Predictions

On Saturday night, Paul "The Punisher" Williams takes on tough and crafty former World Champion, Winky Wright. Can Paul handle this class of fighter? Does Winky still have some fight left?

Here are our predictions...

I've seen deterioration in Wright since he fought Soliman. I can't imagine 20 months off is what he needed to cure his rapid decline. Couple that with the fact that an active fighter has always posed problems for Wright and I see a complete white washing.There is no possible scenario for a Wright victory in my view. Williams wins every round until the corner stops it in the late rounds. -Mark Lyons

If Wright hasn't lost much during his long layoff I think he has what it takes to beat Williams. Williams is good, but I'm not sure he's ready for a guy with an educated jab who's never been knocked out. I see a close decision in Wright's favor because Williams throws with enough volume to keep it tight. - John Vaci

I've always had a soft spot for Wright but I can't see him winning this fight. Williams is the younger, hungrier, more athletic fighter. If you add Williams' height and reach advantages and Wright's inactivity into the mix, then it makes for a one-sided fight. I think Wright's experience and mental toughness will be enough for him to make it to the final bell but I envisage a wide points decision in favour of Williams. -David Oakes

Paul Williams of today against the Winky Wright of 3-4 years ago would be a pick-em fight. Now, with Wright getting older and coming off a nearly two year hiatus, I'd give the definitive edge to Williams. How much of the old Winky's left is a bit of a mystery. But he's never been dominated or anywhere close to getting stopped since the Vasquez fight 15 years ago, and he's been in against tough opposition for the last 3rd of his career. That means something. I think he'll put a good fight. I wouldn't be shocked if Wright continued the recent trend of old fighters beating young volume punchers who were penciled in to conquer them. But with a 21 month layoff, I see Williams outworking him for a 116-112 decision. -Michael Nelson

The fight really depends on what Winky shows up and how old that Winky is. If it's the Wright who doggedly sticks to his defensive, jab and turtle shell style whether it's working or not, he will lose. But if it's the Wright who came forward and worked inside on Jermain Taylor, then I think he has a chance to make it a good fight and maybe pull the mild upset. Winky takes a lot of crap at times for his safety first approach, but he can actually be pretty gritty. I wouldn't necessarily be surprised to see Winky win the fight, but I think at this stage of the game he's not hungry enough to do what it takes, and his recent flat footed style is going to be a tough sell against Williams' bunches of punches. For Williams, he just needs to swamp Wright and keep him at bay. I expect Winky to have some moments, but for Williams to win by decision as the older man just can't keep up. -Jeff Pryor

The age and lay-off will have Winky stuck in the mud enough for Paul to beat him 9-3. He'll have to fight hard to win those rounds, and will learn a few things along the way. -Lee Payton

Williams is an exciting fighter with a ton of talent, but he's still not polished enough for me to pick him here, even against what is reasonable to assume will be a somewhat diminished version of Winky Wright. I'm taking the cagey vet in a close one. - Andrew Fruman

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Can Winky Ruin Paul's Big Plans?

By Lee Payton

Photo © Marty Rosengarten / Ringsidephotos.com

Winky Wright was the kind of fighter manager's feared most. His southpaw jab, craft and tendency to make otherwise special fighters look ordinary was enough to convince many big time players look the other way.

A decade after making a name for himself in the US, Wright finds himself in with another of the sport's very best. This time it's 6'2 fellow lefty Paul Williams, a banger from Georgia, who was thought of as the best welterweight in the world until he left the division in search of meaningful fights.

Both of these men know what it is to be "too good", and it was the familiar reluctance of others that drove the two camps toward an unlikely agreement.

At first glance it would be perfectly understandable to conclude that the younger Williams will just be too fresh for a 37 year old who hasn't fought in about a year and a half, and while I agree that Paul should be heavily favored, I'm not sure we're in for the domination many fans expect. In the 13 years he has competed on the top level, not one opponent has shined against Wright, and many others didn't even bother taking the chance.

Of course, age and inactivity create special circumstances. We've seen time play tricks with what used to be trusty legs and a sturdy chin. Sometimes the stuff that a fighter has counted on in the past just isn't there anymore, and that's the danger for an aging athlete.

However, this is a guy who has seen it all in boxing. He fought extensively on the French circuit during the early part of his pro career. In 1997 he retained his belt in South Africa against unbeaten Harry Simon, only to have it taken away in the locker room minutes later because of a "scoring error". Fernando Vargas saw his KO streak come to an end when he was enjoying his prime years. Wright was able to hush the crowd that came to see him get flattened by Felix Trinidad, and just being in the trenches with Bernard Hopkins probably means the older man has forgotten more about boxing than his young opponent knows.

For as good as the man they call "The Punisher" is, fighting someone with this kind of skill and experience is new to him. Sure, Verno Phillips was a tough nut, and a fighter I've got loads of respect for, but he's certainly never been in the same class as Wright and wasn't capable of giving Williams anything new to think about. And even though Antonio Margarito had more fights, the problems he presented were almost strictly physical.

He's gone up against one other tricky southpaw, named Carlos Quintana, and the results were wildly mixed. A sluggish effort that saw him eating way too many clean punches, was avenged in sudden fashion with a KO in 1. While blasting away a guy that had bested him 4 months earlier is obviously impressive, it doesn't wipe away the defensive lapses that have shown up in virtually all of his fights.

Wright has only one stoppage in his last 15 fights, so there is little worry of getting clipped on the sweet spot. Not that Paul's chin appears to be a concern, as it seems to be right up there with confidence as his best assets. If he needs to worry about any punch in particular, it's that bothersome right jab.

Stylistically, it's quite interesting. Neither fighter is into giving too much ground without getting something in return, which leaves you to wonder who will command the space and the pace of the combat. If they end up standing in front of each other, chipping away behind a high guard, the veteran will be getting what he wants out of the action. That said, I don't think Williams will be all that uncomfortable with what's going on, so it's up to Wright to stay with him.

As professional as he has been, it's a fighter's hubris that keeps me from picking another seasoned underdog. There have been moments like the 12th round against Jermain Taylor, and the free shot he gave Shane Mosley, that force you to wonder about his concentration. There was also a less than desperate showing in final round of a tight one with Vargas. How deep is he willing to dig at this point?

Winky is a tough guy. He's not going out easy to anyone. In fact, if I was confident that the same guy who fought Taylor was going to show up, I'd roll with him to win a close one, but how do I know that he hasn't been splitting his free time between the gentleman's club and his favorite Krispy Kreme?

I'm one of those fans who happens to think Paul Williams has "it". He's not the most technically sound or careful pug in the world, but you'd be hard-pressed to find a guy with more heart. A talented kid with a scrapper's ticker is a dangerous proposition for anyone, even a proud spoiler. With the fight on the line, I have more faith in Williams to take it, and that's enough this time.

The young, hungry man knocks off the old-timer, who teaches him a thing or two along the way.

e-mail Lee Payton
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Unlocking Compubox

Punch stats provided by Compubox have become a staple of many boxing telecasts, but just how useful are these statistics in telling an accurate picture of what's taking place in the ring? Michael Nelson takes a look at the relevance of these oft-quoted numbers.

Shane Mosley smiled and shrugged his shoulders.

He had just thrown seven punches within a second and a half – so quickly that HBO commentator Jim Lampley incorrectly called it a four punch combination. Three of the seven landed. Or was it two? Is it possible none of them landed?

The difficulty in deciphering how accurate the blindingly fast combo was didn’t just lie with the speed it was delivered, but also in the shell-like posture of its target, in this case Ronald “Winky” Wright. Wright was a master at instantly reducing the surface area needed to land a scoring blow into infinitesimal space in between and around his forearms and gloves as soon as his opponent opens up. It’s an ability that has left a long history of foes befuddled and on the losing end of lopsided decisions, including Shane Mosley himself, eight months earlier.

It also leaves questions on how much guesswork goes into recording which blows land and which don’t.

“CompuBox numbers in round one [are] demonstrating exactly what Roy says about the problem of Shane getting to Wright. CompuBox found Wright landing 22 out of 45, and Shane… only 5 out of 59, all body connects – in other words, CompuBox didn’t see Mosley landing a single punch on Wright’s head in the first round,” Jim Lampley said near the beginning of the second round, with a hint of disbelief in his voice.

“I don’t believe that number,” Larry Merchant quickly interjected.

“That’s not true, he did land a few shots to the head, they just weren’t power shots,” Roy Jones agreed.

The CompuBox process of gathering punch statistics is a fairly simple one. Two operators are sitting side-by-side along ringside. Equipped with laptops, one operator carefully monitors the actions of a designated fighter while the other operator does the same with the opponent. They hit one of four keys whenever a punch is attempted by their assigned pugilist: jab connect, jab miss, power punch connect, and power punch miss. As the fight progresses, statistics are compiled for each fighter – how many jabs are thrown, how many are landed, how many power punches are thrown, how many are landed, and the percentages of punches landed out of punches thrown in each category.

photo © Ray Kasprowicz

It should be noted that any non-jab is considered a ‘power punch’, so a power punch isn’t necessarily a powerful blow. A grazing Paulie Malignaggi right hand is counted the same as a staggering Ricky Hatton left hook. In short, the CompuBox system measures the quantity of punches, not the quality of them.

The lead operator, generally the more experienced one, may note pertinent statistics or trends to the televising company’s production truck. The truck feeds the information into the headpiece of the lead commentator, who then relays the stats to the audience viewing the broadcast. The stats are also displayed during and after the fights.

An issue arises when these statistics are used as an authoritative source on what’s happening inside the ring. The operators at ringside pressing laptop keys, albeit trained in their craft, do not have the benefit of replay or slow motion. They’re dealing with live action, prone to compromised angles and perspectives that could prevent them from clearly seeing whether a punch lands or not, in addition to human bias and error.

More importantly, the definition of a landed punch is open to interpretation.

In this instance, Shane Mosley was throwing punches, often in rapid succession difficult for the eye to register, against a man who used his gloves and abnormally large forearms to get a piece of virtually every one of them. Within a matter of a second or two, the operator has to make a judgment call on whether a punch that caught both glove and face, or both elbow and abdomen, is considered a landed punch or a blocked punch.

When monitoring a Winky Wright opponent, a punch tracker is largely working within a gray area. Ten different people tracking landed blows on Wright might get ten different sets of statistics. And while Wright may be the most efficient practitioner of the shell defense, a large percentage of professional fighters use it to protect themselves. Even men whose defense revolves around head movement and distance cover up from time to time.

Still, it’s rare that you hear the type of objections Larry Merchant and Roy Jones threw out on air. Generally, punch stat numbers are used as concrete evidence that a fight is moving in a certain direction. Jim Lampley in particular seems to treat the numbers with special reverence, often using them to support the inclinations of HBO’s unofficial judge Harold Lederman.

The relationship between HBO and CompuBox is a close one. Owner and co-developer of CompuBox, Bob Canobbio, worked as a researcher for an HBO series called Boxing’s Best in the mid-80s. The man he worked under was then producer Ross Greenburg, now president of HBO Sports. After developing the CompuBox system with Logan Hobson, he sold the idea to Greenburg, and HBO started using the system to make their shows more interactive for the viewer. ESPN and other companies joined the fray after 1989.

A notable exception to the business of punch tracking is Showtime. One of the forgotten stories within the ongoing rivalry between HBO and Showtime is how HBO bought an exclusive deal with CompuBox after CompuBox worked a couple of shows with Showtime in the 80s. Since 1985, CompuBox has worked with HBO and only HBO on paid cable.

Ironically, the absence of punch statistics may offer Showtime viewers a clearer, more objective take on what’s transcribing between two combatants inside the squared ring. A reliance on what’s interpreted as a landed punch, along with the musings of an unofficial ringside judge, can easily blur the line between describing the action and dictating a story onto the audience. So when Max Kellerman asks “how can one fighter who’s out landing another fighter in every round seemingly two-to-one be losing a fight?” – in reference to the quantity of Chris John’s punches vs. the quality of Rocky Juarez’ punches in their draw last month – it isn’t difficult to see how faux controversy can be generated amongst boxing fans viewing the fight from their television sets.

That’s not to say CompuBox tracking is without its merits. Extensive video review of a fight can provide more accurate and comprehensive statistics that can be handy in analyzing a fighter’s strengths and weaknesses. An analysis of how active a fighter is, how many jabs, body punches, hooks, etc, are thrown, and how consistent a fighter’s output is throughout a bout can undoubtedly be useful information.

But saturating the television audience with punch statistics tracked live, and treating them as if they’re an infallible representation of events instead of an interpretative portrayal, is abusing the system for the sake of production values. More command should be yielded to the fans, especially ones who don’t know how punches are tabulated by CompuBox, in determining for themselves which blows are landed and which are even worth noting.

While it's easy to measure the quality of play through the use of live statistics in football, basketball, and especially baseball, professional boxing isn't a game. Stripped to its bones, the sweet science is about who is consistently hurting who the most.

That, you can't quantify. In this case, less is more.

e-mail Michael Nelson
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