Friday, February 6, 2009

Darchinyan vs Arce Predictions

Dynamic Super Flyweight World Champion, Vic Darchinyan, defends his title against the very colourful scrapper from Mexico, Jorge Arce, tomorrow night, in what should be an offensive showcase.

Darchinyan brutally dispatched one of his Arce's conquerors the last time he was in the ring, but styles make fights and maybe the challenger's grit will be enough to thwart the champ's punishing attack. So who finishes on top in this meeting of two of the most interesting characters in boxing?

Read on for predictions from The Boxing Bulletin Staff.

I have to go with Darchinyan in this one. Arce is a fun little warrior, but he simply cannot afford to get hit as often as he usually does when he clashes with the champ. There are just too many things working against him this time.

For one, I don't think Arce likes fighting southpaws. True, Vic isn't the type to get cute in there, but he is a very unusual fighter, and I think his fighting stance is going to give the Mexican fits. I also don't believe that Arce has the power to seriously hurt this guy. Even against smaller fighters, he would tend to grind them down over time and I don't see him getting into Vic's chest enough to consistently get his best work done, so I'll take the champion to retain his crown via TKO in the 9th. He'll just be lining up skin tearing left hands all night from the pocket on his way to a convincing stoppage.

-Lee Payton

Darchinyan vs. Arce is a personal dream fight for me going back a couple of years. Of course boxing didn't strike while the iron was hot, and the prospect of this battle isn't quite as searingly brilliant as it once was. Both men's stock has dropped since their initial banter, back and forth in interviews a few years back, and while Darchinyan has done much to regain his stature, perhaps even beyond where it was before his knockout defeat to Nonito Donaire, Arce has continued to struggle at times, particularly with lefties.

Heading into this bout, Arce enjoys a small height and reach advantage, but the key factor in the physical characteristics category may be Darchinyan's southpaw stance. Cristian Mijares, also a southpaw, befuddled Arce all night. Following that one sided loss, Arce faced Tomas Rojas, another southpaw, and "el Travieso" looked to be on his way to a loss when he suddenly stopped Rojas with a vicious body shot. After the bout Arce told interviewers that he didn't want to face any more southpaws. Just over a year down the line... enter Darchinyan, perhaps the most awkward southpaw in the sport.

Aside from the physical aspect of the stance, which has troubled Arce, perhaps his struggles have grown a measure of doubt in his mind. Whether the southpaw stance is truly Arce's kryptonite or not, that thought may be brewing under the surface of his mind. If his confidence is at all disturbed by seeing another lefty across from him, he is already at a disadvantage, which he simply cannot afford with an opponent like Darchinyan.

All that said, I would expect Arce to come out with fire and look to go toe to toe with "The Raging Bull". Darchinyan has that same attitude and a genuine dislike for all his opponents, Arce in particular. While we should get fireworks, I predict Darchinyan will get the better of most exchanges due to his superior, and underrated, defense. Arce is as tough as they come, and so long as he has a clear head, he'll keep trying. Each man can likely hurt the other, and it will come down to which fighter has the faster hands and feet, and the better chin. This is one of those bouts that I don't envision going past six or seven rounds, perhaps even, a much quicker ending.

The bottom line on this match-up to me, is that while Darchinyan has grown from his loss, Arce has grown weary. Though tenacious and perhaps with a few moments of his own, I see Arce getting stopped in between three to six rounds.

-Jeff Pryor

Vic Darchinyan vs Jorge Arce will be a crowd-pleaser while it lasts, but I don't see it being particularly competitive. Vic has been on a tear against quality opposition, while Arce looked befuddled and discouraged against the last two southpaws he fought. Getting nearly whitewashed against the highly skilled Cristian Mijares is forgivable, but after he scraped by Devid Lookmahanak in what I thought was the worst decision in 2008, the pattern had become clear. Arce is unlikely to beat an elite southpaw again.

I think Vic Darchinyan wins by mid-to-late round knockout.

-Michael Nelson

I think this is a much closer fight than most do. Vic is murder on a boxer like Mijares, that can't get his respect. The only thing keeping me from taking Arce outright is that I think he is on the downside of his career. This isn't a tough one to figure out. The guy who backs up the most loses. Sometimes it's as simple as that. My guess is it's an even brawl after eight rounds, Arce tires a bit at the end and Darchinyan pulls out a close UD.

- Mark Lyons

It will be fun while it lasts, but I'll be very surprised if Vic doesn't win convincingly. He hits harder, is better defensively and brings an unorthodox style that should give Arce trouble as well. I'll take Vic by late stoppage.

- Andrew Fruman

I don't see an upset here. Darchiniyian presents a tougher test than Arce ever passed even when perceived to be at his best. Arce hasn't looked impressive in a while, possibly from a move up in weight and lacking enough wrinkles in his game to make up for diminished power and strength. Vic himself looked to be on the slide after his upset loss to Donaire but looks like he may have bounced back better than ever. Vic is bigger, more powerful and seems to have developed his ring identity and confidence after the knockout loss to Donaire. Darchinyan by 10th round TKO.

- John Vaci